Now that the World Series is over and the Cardinals lost (HOORAY!), we can get to the task at hand. The off-season. The Cubs are chocked full of needs this winter. Those will have to be addressed going into 2014 to keep the rebuilding plan on schedule.
These are the most pressing…
1. Find a new manager
After the firing of Dale Sveum, the next guy to lead the Cubs on-field is the first concern. With the playoffs having ended, the obstacle of candidates still playing is over. To be honest, I don’t care who they hire, as long as he fits the mold of what the front office is looking for. That Dale was the guy for a while, then suddenly became not the guy doesn’t matter. Great organizations are stable. And since 2010, this will be the fourth manager. That’s not stable. Find the guy. The right guy. So we’re not going through this mess again in two years.
2. Find some outfield depth
After losing Alfonso Soriano, David DeJesus, and Scott Hairston to midseason trades, it is going to be important for the Cubs to replace that lost depth at the major league level. The preference would be to sign veterans on short (1-2 years) deals while the youngsters get ready. With Nate Schierholtz, Ryan Sweeney, and Junior Lake, there is a need for two more outfielders. Preferably one who can play center and one who hits right handed. To be clear, I do not see Shin Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury as viable options. I have no visions of the Cubs spending on either of those players with the talent that is coming behind them. I do see players like Curtis Granderson, Grady Sizemore, Corey Hart, and Tyler Colvin as options. Colvin is the standard “buy low flier” that this front office has taken in the past, and with his talent and familiarity with the Cubs, and the admission that the Stewart – Colvin trade may have been a mistake, he could be back. The others are veterans who have had some success, but have also had injury issues. Any resurgence could make them trade bait in July, and they all likely come relatively cheap. David DeJesus is also an option if the Rays decide not to pick up his option for next season
3. Trade Darwin Barney
The popular defensive wizard is not part of the core. He’s a below average hitter. And he’s getting a bit older. There is a market for him, though. His value, however, is at its highest point right now. He’s just now entering arbitration. Teams who have a need at second base can use him. The Cubs do not have that need. They are stocked full of middle infielders, from Starlin Castro to Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara, Logan Watkins, and Luis Valbuena, the Cubs have no shortage of middle infield options. All of whom are younger than Barney. And all of whom possess greater offensive upside and the potential to continue good defense at second base in the future. The return for Barney won’t be ground breaking, but it should be a decent prospect, or maybe two if Epstein and Hoyer break out the mask and gun. Now, though, is the best and most logical time to move him.
4. Address the rotation
The rotation was surprisingly good last season, throughout the year. There was a lot of depth that withstood trades, and some players emerged as legitimate long term options. Travis Wood showed that he is a solid mid to back of the rotation starter. Jake Arrieta showed that he is still talented and should get a shot going forward. Edwin Jackson had a rough first year, but with his contract and history, he will be back in the rotation next season, and I would venture to guess he has a better second year with the Cubs. It is the very top of the rotation and the very bottom that should be addressed. Jeff Samardzija walked more, stuck out fewer, and allowed more runners to score in 2013 than 2012. The differences aren’t startling, but they exist. Could it have been fatigue from the most innings in a season he’s thrown? Frustration from another near 100 losses? Displeasure over his contract situation? A combination of all three? I don’t have the answer. What I do have the answer to is Samardzija getting rocked a number of times. And it happening a number of times at home. That’s not an ace. That’s a third in the rotation type pitcher, at best. I am not sold on Japanese stud Masahiro Tanaka being an answer at the top of the rotation, either. Too many Japanese pitchers have flamed out because of arm issues. I understand his stuff is excellent, and he’s still young. That may make him a nice investment, but not for the $100+ million it’s going to cost. If the Cubs get him, I’ll hope for the best, but I won’t be at all surprised with the worst. As far as the back end of the rotation is concerned, bringing back Scott Baker, giving Chris Rusin a shot at a full season, and low cost free agents are all options.
5. Back-up catcher
I have a tough time with the idea of signing a Brian McCann (because of age and injury every bit as much as his high douche factor). All things being equal, I would hope the starting catcher market doesn’t treat Dioner Navarro as he would like, and he comes back. He had a nice year, seemed to have a good relationship with Wellington Castillo, and is a reliable backstop. Whoever comes in should take a back seat to Castillo, though. Big money free agent catchers shouldn’t (and probably won’t) be a priority. If the Cubs can land a guy like Jarrod Saltalamacchia for a decent price, great. if not, a LH hitting backup will work just fine.
One of the great parts about baseball is how this is going to play out throughout the off-season. The Cubs are not going to compete for a World Series next season, most likely. It could, though, bring the first wave of prospects to Wrigley Field. Javier Baez and Kris Bryant very well could debut with the big league club at some point next summer. In addition, could be up after being acquired in trades. It appears that the worst is behind the Cubs in the rebuild. Much of the “acquire talent at all costs” is over because of the amount of talent in the organization. The time now is for the build up. While the Cubs will continue to add pieces and make the team better and organization healthier, this off-season is the beginning of the build up of a contender. Whether it be adding placeholders for a prospect, adding leadership to help those prospects grow, or the eventual hiring of a new manager, the fruits of two years of painful big league play are beginning to ripen.
Look no further than what’s been going on in Arizona. Let the off-season begin!
That seems remarkably hard on Junior Lake. It was meant to be. Because sometimes, the truth is really, really harsh.
Today was a growing pain for the kid, who had three hits and drove in the lone run for the offensively challenged Cubs. And while
maybe he didn’t deserve the benching that Starlin Castro got yesterday from Dale Sveum, he does deserve a meeting with both Sveum, and outfield instructor Dave McKay.
From where I sit, after watching the replay over and over (because I could not watch the play live), Junior Lake simply got complacent and dropped the ball. He got to the spot in plenty of time. He did not appear to be fighting the sun. I could be wrong. I really hope I am. It just didn’t look that way. And it led to the Cardinals’ second and third runs.
If my suspicion is correct, it shows that Lake is guilty of an effort mistake, which in my estimation is worse than any other kind, to include the one that Starlin Castro gets tagged with, the mental mistake. Yesterday is a prime comparison. Starlin went all out, made a tough play, and spaced on the runners, allowing a run to score. Junior Lake, today, didn’t have to go all out, got to the routine fly ball, and let it fall harmlessly to the Wrigley turf because he didn’t use two hands when he looked to have ample opportunity to do so. That is an effort mistake, from a player who has limited experience in the outfield. There is no excuse for that. Effort should be the last thing you’d have to worry about from Junior Lake right now as an outfielder. To have the play he had today should raise the maturity concerns that have been raised about Starlin Castro.
Effort mistakes are inexcusable. Junior Lake’s today is the first that I can recall from him in his time with the major league club. David DeJesus had a similar one on June 13th, dropping a routine fly, allowing a run to score against the Reds, albeit in a game the Cubs eventually won in extras (where it was Starlin who got tagged for dogging it admiring his near walk-off in the ninth). The Cubs are not good enough to not play hard all the time. When they don’t, especially against the Cardinals or like two months ago against the Reds, they won’t win. Young players like Junior Lake, who are in auditions with the team have no excuse for not busting it 100% of the time. Veterans like DeJesus, who’s had his share of mental and effort blunders this season are also in auditions. What makes it worse for a player like DeJesus is that players like Lake are watching him and what he does on and off the field every single day.
Maybe the veteran leadership is what the Cubs are missing. Say what you want about Alfonso Soriano and, going back further, Marlon Byrd, effort was not an issue from those veteran players. That might be where they’re missed the most.
Almost immediately after the game yesterday, Julio Borbon was designated for assignment. In the ninth inning, Borbon made a Grade A Stupid Play, bringing TOOTBLAN to a whole new level.
“That, obviously, was an unfortunate thing that happened. It is a point that we just can’t keep having those things go on, and he’s had a few of them himself. So it was time to make an adjustment to the roster and see if somebody else can do the job. Those are things that are controllable. You don’t have control over swinging at a slider in the dirt. Nobody’s wanting to do that. Those are physical things. Things you have complete control over is knowing the game and thinking ahead, understanding the ramifications. In that situation, you mean absolutely nothing at that point. You can literally stand on second base and not do anything, and everything will be perfectly fine.”
When I read that, I have to admit, my BS detector went nuts. While Dale is correct when he points out that there have been multiple instances of Borbon running himself off the bases, he would also be correct if he said that about every Cub this season. If he wanted to send a message about poor play, why does David DeJesus have a job? He was completely brutal yesterday, and he’s had a number of concentration lapses that have directly led to runs scoring as an outfielder.
The answer is simple…Borbon was the 25th man. He was probably on his way out the door soon, even if he would have hit a walk-off grand slam yesterday. At some point in the near future, Ryan Sweeney and Brian Bogusevic are going to be coming back. The Cubs have also been mighty left-handed this season. At least for the time being, Donnie Murphy, who was added to the roster today, is a right handed hitter who has hit pretty well at AAA Iowa.
My guess is, he’ll be on the first bus back to Des Moines when either Sweeney or Bogusevic return. And newcomer Cole Gillespie will likely get the boot, also. Dale and the front office just happened to fall bass-ackwards into an opportune time to send a message to Junior Lake (who’s run into his share of stupid outs in just a couple of weeks), and the other youngsters who are watching the big league club from the minor leagues. And he was right to do it. It just doesn’t mean that what he said was the whole truth.
The Cubs and Yankees finalized the trade sending Alfonso Soriano to the Bronx today. It breaks down as follows:
Yankees Get: OF/DH Alfonso Soriano, Cash
Cubs Get: RHP Corey Black
Corey Black pitched for the Tampa Yankees in the Florida State League. He throws in the mid to upper 90s, and has touched 100, according to some reports. He’s had some issues with walks, but has the big fastball to go with an above average change up. John Arguello from Cubs Den had the following to say about Black:
“Of all the names mentioned, he’s the one that intrigues me the most. He’s undersized, but has similar athleticism and build as Travis Wood. He can also bring it, able to pitch last year at 95-98 with sinking movement. Some reports have him touching 100 mph in the instructional league. His changeup is solid and his secondaries lag behind, though the slider is further along than the curve. He has struck out 9.58 batters per 9 innings and although he has walked 4.90 per 9 IP, he does have the kind of athleticism to repeat his delivery and develop better command.”
Soriano being moved means the Cubs no longer have a player with a no trade clause, which gives the front office free reign to deal at their heart’s desire. Ultimately, that’s probably the best thing for the organization. Theo Epstein
had some comments about the Soriano deal, via Carrie Muskat:
“I don’t look at this as a watershed moment, or a transformative moment at all. It was simply the right time for Sori to move on and open up some at-bats for Junior Lake and when [Ryan] Sweeney and [Brian] Bogusevic come back from injury, now that [David] DeJesus is back from injury, we have a chance to find out about left-handed bats and some on-base skills and see who might be in the mix for next year. It was just the right time for this particular move.”
Dale Sveum also had some strong words about Alfonso Soriano (via Paul Sullivan and the Tribune)…
“It’s emotional for all of us. You don’t usually gather teams together that often when people get traded to say your goodbyes. That just shows what kind of person he is.”
And from Carrie Muskat…
“You say you’re prepared for it, but I don’t think you’re really prepared to lose somebody of that nature. All the things he brings to a team, the fourth hole, the character, the clubhouse, the leadership and everything. You just don’t replace that.”
With Soriano being traded, Jeff Samardzija is the longest tenured Cub, and the only one remaining from the 2008 season. It also leaves a gaping hole in the “veteran leader” spot. David DeJesus is the first, best candidate to fill that role, and with the team getting younger and younger, he really doesn’t have an alternative, as long as he himself is still a Cub. It also means that the youngster Soriano mentored on being a professional, Starlin Castro, is going to be thrust into the position of being one of the veteran leaders, at just 23 years old. Such is life when you’re the longest tenured position player on the roster.
The line-up is another issue altogether. It appears there is some solution to left field and to the clean-up slot…
That is a perfectly good solution for the time being. Realistically, Junior Lake is going to regress. He’s a talented player, but his obscene start is going to cool off and his numbers are going to come back to earth. Nate Schierholtz manning the clean-up spot (as long as he is also still a Cub) isn’t really a good solution, either. Realistically, the best option in the fourth spot in the line up is Anthony Rizzo. Ultimately, there will likely be a number of different line-up combinations that we see through the end of the season, as Dale Sveum gets new players and returning players to move in and out of the line up.
The one certainty this trade brings the Cubs for the remainder of the season is uncertainty. While it will likely not get as ugly as last season dd, it does mean that Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, and Darwin Barney need to start performing at the level shown on the back of their baseball cards. With difficulty comes opportunity. It will be difficult to replace Soriano’s bat in the line-up, and there will be a number of players who get ample opportunity to prove they can do it.
All of the deadline talk, and justifiably so, has been centered around Matt Garza to this point. There are also some other players who have been talked about as candidates to move on as the deadline approaches. David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz, Alfonso Soriano, and Kevin Gregg have all been spoken of as players who could very likely be traded as the deadline nears, or at least wouldn’t cause anybody any surprise if they were moved. There is also a list of attractive players that the Cubs could move who are not talked about prominently as the deadline inches closer. They fit the needs and holes of teams in contention and are low cost options to upgrade a roster, and it would make perfect sense if the Cubs were fielding calls about these players…
2B Darwin Barney:
The Cubs are stacked in the middle infield in the minor leagues at just about every level. With Logan Watkins at AAA Iowa, Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez at AA Tennessee, and even Gioskar Amaya at Low-A Kane County, middle infielders are of no shortage in the Cubs’ organization. Darwin Barney has done everything he can to become a member of the core group of players that the Cubs use to make their eventual run, but his limitations with the bat seem to make him less attractive than other options. With a Gold Glove in his pocket and over a year before he even gets to arbitration, he could make a team looking for a low cost second baseman, without a need for a highly productive bat, very happy. The need doesn’t even have to be strictly second base. Barney came up as a short stop, and played third base when he first came up to the majors. He could be quite the defensive addition for any team looking to shore up its infield defense. Darwin actually fits into a line-up like Detroit’s perfectly. Incumbent Ramon Santiago plays both offensively and defensively at about replacement level. Replacing him with Darwin Barney doesn’t hurt their prolific offense at all, and very much shores up their middle infield. With the rumor that Detroit was interested last year, it makes sense that they would be interested again this year, given how close they came to winning a championship last year. Darwin Barney won’t net any team’s top prospect, but he should net a solid prospect or retread a la Scott Feldman. And with the depth already mentioned in the system, Darwin is expendable.
IF Luis Valbuena, Cody Ransom:
Luis Valbuena is another player who could see himself on the move as the deadline approaches. Because he is an everyday player with the Cubs, he has displayed what he can do with the bat from the left side of the plate, and has shown to be more than capable as a defender. A team looking for a left handed hitting platoon infielder would love to have a player like Luis Valbuena for his ability to work counts, take walks, hit for power and field three infield positions well. A team like the Yankees, who have had a hard time keeping players on the field may take a long look at a Luis Valbuena. He would fit into the gaping holes left by repeated injuries and days off because of the advanced age of regular players, and his bat would play well with the short porch and right field power allies at Yankee Stadium. The Rays could also have interest in a player with his skill set. He wouldn’t net much of a return, but if there is a low level player in a system that catches Jed or Theo’s eye, don’t doubt for a second that the original “low risk waiver flyer” could be flipped for a lottery ticket at the deadline. Cody Ransom is in pretty much the same situation as Valbuena, except he’s right handed, comes with less control, and more age.
P Carlos Villanueva:
Maybe the least surprising player on this list, and quite possibly the most likely to be traded, Villanueva is a player who has been talked about as a trade candidate. He was merely overshadowed by the talk of Garza and Feldman, among the pitchers. Villanueva is particularly valuable because of his versatility as both a starter and reliever. While specific locations for him may be tough to pin point, it is reasonable to say that any team looking for a ‘pen arm with the ability to give you a solid swing start from time to time would be interested…which boils down to pretty much everybody. Again, it would be a surprise if Villanueva netted anything of note, but a middling prospect in somebody’s system who hasn’t progressed or a retread could be an expected return.
Through the beginning of their tenure, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have done nothing short of a masterful job of adding quality talent to the Cubs’ minor league system. Between the inherited talent and the added talent, the Cubs now have what is a consensus top ten system in the game, and it is likely to get better with the addition of second overall pick Kris Bryant, international signings, and the trade deadline.
Not all of the positions in the organization are overflowing with talent, however. With the international signing and the trade deadline looming, there are some clear areas of need. To build the caliber of organization that the team needs to have and the front office wants to grow, weaknesses need to be addressed.
The focus needs to be on positions with glaring deficiencies. There are positions that are strong at the lower levels of the minor leagues without much talent at the top end, while some are stronger throughout the system or aren’t strong at all. The focus needs to be on picking up pieces to build a strong pipeline to the majors sooner than 2015-2016 and strengthen areas without much talent to speak of at all.
This is a no-brainer. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have acknowledged that the Cubs will use the international pool and trade deadline to strengthen this piece of the puzzle. There are some nice pieces at just about every level of the organization, but not nearly enough. The best prospect in the organization is Arodys Vizcaino, who was acquired last July in the Paul Maholm trade. When he gets healthy, he has front of the rotation stuff, but his arm trouble might limit him to a relief role. Pierce Johnson just got his long overdue promotion to Daytona, and he appears to be on his way. Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood are nice young pieces at the ML level. The focus has been on arms in the draft, but none of them appear to be impact arms, with the Cubs grabbing position players with their last two top ten picks. The clear lack of high end, projectable pitching talent makes it job one for the Cubs this July. They could start out by signing Cuban prospect Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. He’s 26, and could realistically start in the upper levels of the minor leagues this season, if not at the major league level…and all he costs is money. Which the Cubs don’t seem opposed to spending on international free agents.
Beyond Wellington Castillo and Steve Clevenger, there isn’t a lot of strength to one of the keystone positions. While Castillo is a young player who is looking more and more like an everyday backstop, organizational depth is paramount at a position where injuries mount and nobody can catch everyday. Dioner Navarro is a stop gap at the major league level. While the Cubs can be active in signing veteran catchers for a year or two at a time, there is a ton of value in bringing catchers through the system who have a history with the pitchers coming up through the system.
3. Corner Infielders
Count me among the guys who really likes Christian Villanueva. And Jeimer Candelario. And Anthony Rizzo. Beyond that, there are a ton of question marks. Josh Vitters may never figure it out defensively. I am not sold on the idea that Kris Bryant can stick at third base. Dan Vogelbach appears to best project as a designated hitter. Junior Lake is looking more and more like a super utility player. Luis Valbuena is a utility player who is having a nice season as a starter for a rebuilding team, but in no way should or would be a starter on a playoff caliber team. It really boils down to defense with this group. While first base at the major league level appears to be filled for the foreseeable future, third base is a bit of a black hole and there is almost no depth in the system at first. One thing that helps this group along is the potential for Javier Baez or Starlin Castro to slide over to third and fill the slot whenever Baez makes his way up to the majors.
4. Center Field
The cupboard at the major league level is bare. David DeJesus, Dave Sappelt, and Ryan Sweeney are really nice filler material during the rebuild, but they are similar to Luis Valbuena. All three are reserves on playoff teams, and none of them figure to be around for the long haul. Albert Almora looks fantastic at Kane County thus far. He’s a few years away from being an option, though. It is up in the air if Brett Jackson makes use of his incredible talent because he is endlessly afflicted by the strike out. Jae-Hoon Ha and Matt Szczur both look like the DeJesus/ Sweeney type, as in they could be spare outfielders who can play all over as defensive replacements. For those reasons, it wouldn’t hurt to add a center fielder with upside if the opportunity presents itself.
5. Corner Outfielders
There isn’t much for depth here in Iowa, but there is a lot to like about the potential for corner outfielders in the Cubs organization. Jorge Soler is obviously the crown jewel of these guys at any level, but he won’t be in Chicago until September of 2014 at the absolute earliest. The better bet is 2015 at some point. Kris Bryant, to me, is probably going to end up in the corner not occupied by Soler, should everything go right. This is a group that could also include Junior Lake, Josh Vitters if his defense stays as shaky at third as it has been. Reggie Golden is at Kane County and is a sleeper to me. Overall, I like the group of players the Cubs have stocked up on that could be turned into corner outfielder, where hitting is most important, and where defensive liabilities like Vitters can be hidden. Again, it wouldn’t hurt to add to it if the opportunity arises, but there are definitely better places to add pieces.
6. Middle Infield
Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, Logan Watkins, Arismendy Alcantara, Ronald Torreyes, Javier Baez…need I say more? There is a legit prospect at just about every level of the minor leagues in the middle infield. And the major league level has a two time All-Star and a Gold Glove winner in the line-up everyday, neither of whom is old by any stretch of the imagination. The middle infield is the strength of the organization, and unless you’re getting Jurickson Profar in a deal, this area isn’t a priority in the least.
There is no argument to be made that the Cubs wouldn’t be best served to get the best players they can, regardless of the positions they play. Weaknesses cannot be ignored, however, and the goal when moving players like Matt Garza should be to find high level talent in areas of need, which would make the trade good for both sides. Again, if the Rangers are parting with Profar (for example), you have to pull the trigger. Talent like that doesn’t come around very often. At the end of the day though, the focus has to be on adding impact arms that can make a difference in the near future and catchers to work with them coming up through system.
It is undeniable that Starlin Castro is the player who gets the most attention on the Cubs’ roster. There is good reason for that. A $60M contract extension will do that, especially when you’re 22. 594 career hits at time in his life when a lot of kids are just finishing college will also do the trick. The man is a lightning rod for fans to pin their hopes for a future championship on.
He is also a man for fans to beat down. And he gets beat down because of the media attention that is placed on him. More specifically, the intense scrutiny that comes with every mistake he makes. We can all still hear Bobby Valentine talking about how his head wasn’t in it on that play on Sunday Night Baseball two years ago…admit it. CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney says it best when he says that Starlin “moves the needle.” As in, he draws eyes to the screen, to the paper, and clicks to the websites.
Don’t get me wrong. I like the coverage a lot of the beat writers and the talking heads provide of the Cubs. I think they do a pretty solid job of keeping a pretty uninteresting team entertaining through a tough rebuilding process. That’s their job, and they do it well. Things like this, however don’t help a young player with the weight of 105 years on his shoulders…
On his ninth inning drive to left field, it is true Starlin admired his work. He did not run out of the box as hard as he could have. And I hope it was discussed on the plane to New York tonight between Castro and Dale Sveum. It can’t be with a veteran leader because Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus both made stupid base running mistakes today, too, and they should also have a conversation with their manager, and it should be less cordial than the one with the 23 year old. To be fair to Starlin, he CRUSHED the ball. The wind made it a double. That ball was going to be a walk-off home run in the ninth inning, the double it turned out to be, or an out. No amount of busting it was going to change that. It sure did put some heat on a kid who is hopefully breaking out of a slump after a good day today, though. Yes, he did have two errors (one of which was a really tough play, and the throw drew Rizzo off the bag when it was going to be close anyway), but his bat came to life a little. He looked like the Starlin we saw in 2010 and 2011.
I like David Kaplan, so don’t mistake this as an attack on him. That’s not the intent. He is a passionate fan who calls ’em like he sees ’em. It’s good stuff. But his Twitter following is roughly 100 times what mine is, and his soap box is television. To an extent, and this is just my opinion, you either have to call all of them or none of them. Alfonso Soriano made a total bonehead play in the 8th, getting thrown out at second on the most routine of base hits right in front of him. After the walk and base hit immediately following his mistake, who knows what happens, but Schierholtz scored the tying run when he could have been the go ahead run after Soriano scores in front of him. Castro’s play in the ninth could have been avoided if Soriano, a 37 year old veteran ball player didn’t make the king of base running blunders.
In the 13th, David DeJesus jogged on down to first base on a routine ground ball and stopped short of the bag. None of this is a big deal, except that the Gold Glover, Brandon Phillips bobbled it and he could have made it a close play at first, or even gotten into first had he hustled. As John Arguello pointed out at the time, though…
This is not to say we shouldn’t be upset or even criticize Starlin Castro. The point is actually much more simple that that. We shouldn’t unfairly criticize Castro. His defense is still a topic of hot conversation, even though he is on pace for the fewest errors in a season of his career, even after his two today (Nine errors in 64 games, which is a pace of roughly 23 for the season…Javier Baez has 26 at last glance at Daytona. So no, he’s not better at short right now, meatballs). My point is that we shouldn’t hammer the kid when he does something inconsequential like today. And we absolutely should hammer all of the players when they don’t hustle, make stupid mistakes, or drop routine fly balls that they can get two hands on and catch, which would save a run (Looking at you again, DeJesus).
Then again, maybe I’m just saying all of this for hits on the blog.
I think we’re all sure that there is going to be a sell off at the deadline this season again. The extent of that sell off is yet to be determined, but in comparison to last year, it will likely be pretty minor. The reason for that is simple…there is less there for the Cubs to sell. That’s not to say this team is less talented than last year’s team. Actually, the opposite is true by a wide margin. Looking at “the plan,” though, and what the Cubs have on their roster, who is likely to go is pretty limited.
NOT GOING ANYWHERE:
Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood
The only player in this group who has any chance of being dealt is Travis Wood. Jeff Samardzija is a stud who is under team control through 2016. That type of pitcher is someone you don’t let go of if you’re lacking impact pitching talent in the first place. Travis Wood has an outside shot of being traded because of his hot start to the season, with nine quality starts in his first ten outings. He, too, is under team control for a long time. He won’t hit free agency until 2017. He is exactly the type of young, cost controlled asset the regime has said to want to keep around. Dealing him at the deadline would be a huge shock to me, and I don’t see it happening without some type of high end prospect coming back in return. And because Travis Wood is still only a good 4-5th starter, I can’t see a team willing to cough up that much for him. Edwin Jackson’s not going anywhere. He was signed to be a piece for when the Cubs compete. And he will get ample opportunity to figure out what troubles him.
MAY BE GOING SOMEWHERE:
He’s only been back for a week, so I think it is entirely too early to tell whether or not he is fully back from his arm/ lat injuries. And it is too early to tell what kind of value he has. I know that the Cubs are looking to get back impact prospects for Garza, and if they get the right package of them, he’ll be packing his bags and headed to another city. It is just too early to tell if any team is going to be willing to ship the Cubs the right package of prospects for a pure rental player, who is due to become a free agent at season’s end. It would figure to be just as likely that Garza stays in Chicago all season and the Cubs slap a qualifying offer on him. If that happens, it would be entirely possible that Garza would return to the Cubs after watching Kyle Lohse wait until just before the season to be signed. There is an outside shot that the Cubs extend him for a contract similar to the one they offered Anibal Sanchez. He is worth that kind of money when healthy, and if he shows that he is, he’d be worth the investment.
DON’T GET COMFORTABLE:
Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva
Both of these guys are attractive pieces at the deadline. Neither makes all that much money. Both can come out of the pen. Both can give you a good start every five days. That makes them the two best candidates to be out the door this July. Feldman was asked about being flipped at his introductory conference call, so none of this should come as news to him. Villanueva, however, signed a two year deal, so he would likely net a bit more than
Feldman in a trade, simply for the extra year of inexpensive control.
NOT GOING ANYWHERE:
Hector Rondon, Shawn Camp, Kyuji Fujikawa, Carlos Marmol
I know you’re all upset that Marmol is on this list. I am, too. He’s not worth a day old hotdog, though. At the deadline he’ll be due about $5M, and his numbers aren’t going to make that a good investment for a team looking for a quality reliever. The only way he comes off this list is if he has a turn around like last year and the Cubs eat most (…or all) of his remaining contract. And he won’t bring back very much in return. The most likely scenario with him is finishing the season and walking away in free agency. Shawn Camp is much more likely to be released than traded. Kyuji Fujikawa has been injured too early to have any chance at being dealt, and Hector Rondon is a Rule 5 player who the front office likes. That makes all of them mostly untradeable.
MAY BE GOING SOMEWHERE:
James Russell, Kevin Gregg
James Russell has proven to be a valuable commodity in the bullpen the last couple of years, which increases his value immensely, but since he is under team control through 2016, it stands to reason that the team would like to keep a controllable asset like him. There are good teams looking for left handed relievers who can get guys out on both sides of the plate, though. And if one of them offers up a good package for James Russell, it would not be outside of the realm of possibility that he gets shipped off for multiple pieces. Kevin Gregg is having a bit of a resurgence with the Cubs, which makes him attractive. He’s a cheap piece who could fit into a bullpen and occasionally close for a team looking for that type of player. He probably wouldn’t net a whole lot, but considering the Cubs were just throwing a line in the water to see what he had, any return would be a nice profit on their low risk investment.
NOT GOING ANYWHERE:
Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, Wellington Castillo
Rizzo and Castro both signed long term extensions. Those are obvious. Castillo is a talented young catcher who is going to get every opportunity to win this spot long term.
MAY BE GOING SOMEWHERE:
Darwin Barney, Luis Valbuena, Cody Ransom, Dioner Navarro
The most attractive piece in this group is obviously Darwin Barney. His glove makes him an attractive trade piece for someone looking for a really good utility infielder. Remember, he came up as a short stop and played some third base when he was initially called up. If his bat keeps coming along, he could be a really good long term starter at second base for a contending team with a shortage in that spot. He’s 27, so the Cubs may not see him as a long term piece of the core group of players. He is under team control until 2017, though. And if he continues to make progress with the bat, he is every bit the kind of player you want at 2B on a contending Cubs team. Luis Valbuena and Cody Ransom both offer the same kind of value for a team that Jeff Baker added last year. They are both utility players who can swing the bat some. They may not bring a lot in return, but that probably wouldn’t stop the front office from sending them away for some intriguing young players.
MAY BE GOING SOMEWHERE:
Alfonso Soriano, David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney
The safest bet for any of the outfielders to go anywhere is David DeJesus. A veteran, left handed hitter who can take pitches and work counts while offering solid defense at all three outfield positions is always in demand. If the price is right, DDJ is out the door. It’s just not clear what his value is. It can’t be too much higher than it was last year, and he wasn’t traded then. I sense that he would have been traded last year if there was a market for him, which gives me some reason to think he’s not the slam dunk to be traded that some are calling him. Soriano is going to be shopped aggressively, and if the Cubs find a team willing to package some good pieces together and Soriano is willing to waive his no trade rights, he likely goes at the deadline. There is too much uncertainty with Soriano, though. He’s picky. And he has that right. If the Cubs get a call about the other three players, I am sure they will listen, and if they can get a prospect of two that they like, there is almost no chance they refuse.
None of this is to say that the Cubs will stand pat at the deadline. It just isn’t clear who will or will not be going anywhere. There are not the sure things this season, like Ryan Dempster last season. There are attractive pieces on this team for others to look at, but none of them are necessarily special. Matt Garza would net the most in return, theoretically, but if Jed and Theo don’t get a package they like, it is hard to believe they will trade him for the sake of trading him. That actually applies to pretty much everybody on the roster short of Feldman. He is a true rental, even for the Cubs, so if they can squeeze a prospect out for him, they probably wouldn’t hesitate to do so. They may be a little more choosey with Villanueva only because they have him next season, too, and if they plan on being in the hunt next year, he’s a nice piece to have. Or, if we’re looking at another cold assessment that leads to selling, he has value then, too.
Expect some movement from the Cubs. Just don’t expect them to send away everything not nailed down like last year. This is year two. It’s time to start hanging on to some of the talent.
Last night, we saw something new. Not new to the game or to this season, but to the Cubs. They drove in runs without the aid of the long ball. It was magical. More importantly, it was about damn time.
This season, the Cubs lead the NL in doubles, are 3rd in the NL in home runs, and 4th in slugging percentage. They are also 12th in on base percentage, 11th in batting average, and 11th in runs scored.
There is really only one thing to take away from these numbers…the Cubs either hammer the baseball or don’t get hits at all. There isn’t a middle ground for them at this point. And that is not how to win ballgames.
That’s what made last night so nice to see. Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo each had two run singles in the fourth inning after Scott Feldman’s RBI single. Five runs, none driven in with the extra base hit or home run. When you add Alfonso Soriano’s RBI ground out in the first and Nate Schierhotz’s sacrifice fly in the sixth, that’s a nice night of offense. The Rizzo HR in the eighth inning served as a cherry on top of an atypically productive night of offense for the Cubs.
The early problems with the Cubs have been the bullpen, the defense (at times), and the offense. One night does not solve the problem, and some players are still trying to figure out which end of the bat to hold. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Darwin!) With that being said, it appears that Alfonso Soriano and Anthony Rizzo have figured out their early season struggles. Soriano isn’t freezing. Rizzo is using the entire field and looks like the Rizzo we met last season. Both are good things. The Cubs need that production in the middle of the line up.
As we await the inevitable trade deadline activity, there are a few things we can take for granted as fans…the subtractions will not be as deep as they were last year, and the meat and potatoes of the current line up is going to be left intact, for the most part. The only significant losses that are in the realm of possibility are Darwin Barney being flipped to a contender for prospects, and David DeJesus being flipped for small pieces. Aside from that, there is not a lot of likelihood for big changes. Nate Schierholtz could find himself on the way out, too, but he’s on a one year deal, anyway. He is a rental in every sense of the word, even if the Cubs don’t flip him.
What we’re seeing is probably what we’re going to get this season. And probably a big portion of next season. Javier Baez and Jorge Soler are not coming anytime soon. Watching the current cast of characters is the show we’re going to get for at least the foreseeable future. It would be nice if there were more nights like last night.
First, an explanation of the title… It’ll become clear that this post is regarding Matt Garza’s absence very soon. The Billy Goat reference is to the beard he’s sported. And it’s not a knock at all. I think it’s awesome. And I’m a bit jealous that my employer’s dress code doesn’t allow me to have it. Moving on…
Some would consider it overstated if I were to say that the Cubs really, really miss Matt Garza. After all, how can they miss a guy who hasn’t pitched since last July while the rotation is in the midst of one of the best runs on the north side in quite some time?
Garza may not be the sole source of energy on the Cubs’ roster. Darwin Barney hustles and plays with enthusiasm. David DeJesus is a workman everyday. And being a starting pitcher, what Garza can do on the field is pretty limited to one game in every five. The on-field component is only a part of the story, though. Matt Garza does things that don’t usually get caught by cameras, but when they do, boy they stand out. He’s really good at delivering a shaving cream pie. Leaning over the rail in the dugout is a particularly nice trait he features.
Enthusiasm is a tough thing to bottle. As I mentioned, a number of players on the roster play with enthusiasm. Matt Garza does damn near everything with enthusiasm. He tweets with enthusiasm, completing every win by tweeting “Raise ‘er up” with the white flag with trademark blue W in the middle. At the Cubs Convention, he was so laid back that he looked like he nearly fell out of his chair laughing, by my count, three times. Once when Scott Feldman referenced an “upper decker” when he was in Texas. Once when a fan I know fairly well asked Scott Baker for tickets after he’d mentioned in a panel discussion that it was awkward to say no to fans who ask for them. And another at what was a seemingly benign joke from Scott Feldman. I don’t even recall what the joke was. I just remember Garza’s reaction. That personality, which may exist in a less public form within the Cubs clubhouse while Garza gets back, is something the Cubs need. From my view, no team can have enough Matt Garzas.
As I’ve been working on this piece, Pat Mooney put one of his own out with some great stuff from Garza directly. It actually set up the point I was going to make before I made it, so if Pat Mooney or Matt Garza feel like wasting time reading my hobby, thanks a lot for beating me to the punch. Since I came to make a point, I won’t let them stand in my way, though. Garza, in all of his enthusiastic glory, is about the most positive person I can think of. I can’t say I’ve seen him acknowledge the negative. He’d been outspoken about progress and tackling his rehab from the stress reaction last summer. The same thing with the strained lat. And he wants the same out of the fans, which is well highlighted in the Mooney piece. He either really loves the fans or he’s a really good actor (and I think it’s the former). And he wants us to have his (and his team’s) back as much as he’s shown that he has ours over the course of the last few years.
With the free agency climate changing, I, too, could see Matt Garza sticking around with a qualifying offer. If he comes back and pitches as well as he has since he’s been with the Cubs, there’s no good reason not to lock up a legitimate front line starter, to go with Samardzija, Jackson, et al to make a run at the postseason down the line. We know what he’s capable of in October. He was quite good in his appearance with the Rays in 2008 and 2010. And, as positive as he is, it would be nice to see him winning a playoff game, series, and championship with the Cubs when that day comes.