Now that the World Series is over and the Cardinals lost (HOORAY!), we can get to the task at hand. The off-season. The Cubs are chocked full of needs this winter. Those will have to be addressed going into 2014 to keep the rebuilding plan on schedule.
These are the most pressing…
1. Find a new manager
After the firing of Dale Sveum, the next guy to lead the Cubs on-field is the first concern. With the playoffs having ended, the obstacle of candidates still playing is over. To be honest, I don’t care who they hire, as long as he fits the mold of what the front office is looking for. That Dale was the guy for a while, then suddenly became not the guy doesn’t matter. Great organizations are stable. And since 2010, this will be the fourth manager. That’s not stable. Find the guy. The right guy. So we’re not going through this mess again in two years.
2. Find some outfield depth
After losing Alfonso Soriano, David DeJesus, and Scott Hairston to midseason trades, it is going to be important for the Cubs to replace that lost depth at the major league level. The preference would be to sign veterans on short (1-2 years) deals while the youngsters get ready. With Nate Schierholtz, Ryan Sweeney, and Junior Lake, there is a need for two more outfielders. Preferably one who can play center and one who hits right handed. To be clear, I do not see Shin Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury as viable options. I have no visions of the Cubs spending on either of those players with the talent that is coming behind them. I do see players like Curtis Granderson, Grady Sizemore, Corey Hart, and Tyler Colvin as options. Colvin is the standard “buy low flier” that this front office has taken in the past, and with his talent and familiarity with the Cubs, and the admission that the Stewart – Colvin trade may have been a mistake, he could be back. The others are veterans who have had some success, but have also had injury issues. Any resurgence could make them trade bait in July, and they all likely come relatively cheap. David DeJesus is also an option if the Rays decide not to pick up his option for next season
3. Trade Darwin Barney
The popular defensive wizard is not part of the core. He’s a below average hitter. And he’s getting a bit older. There is a market for him, though. His value, however, is at its highest point right now. He’s just now entering arbitration. Teams who have a need at second base can use him. The Cubs do not have that need. They are stocked full of middle infielders, from Starlin Castro to Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara, Logan Watkins, and Luis Valbuena, the Cubs have no shortage of middle infield options. All of whom are younger than Barney. And all of whom possess greater offensive upside and the potential to continue good defense at second base in the future. The return for Barney won’t be ground breaking, but it should be a decent prospect, or maybe two if Epstein and Hoyer break out the mask and gun. Now, though, is the best and most logical time to move him.
4. Address the rotation
The rotation was surprisingly good last season, throughout the year. There was a lot of depth that withstood trades, and some players emerged as legitimate long term options. Travis Wood showed that he is a solid mid to back of the rotation starter. Jake Arrieta showed that he is still talented and should get a shot going forward. Edwin Jackson had a rough first year, but with his contract and history, he will be back in the rotation next season, and I would venture to guess he has a better second year with the Cubs. It is the very top of the rotation and the very bottom that should be addressed. Jeff Samardzija walked more, stuck out fewer, and allowed more runners to score in 2013 than 2012. The differences aren’t startling, but they exist. Could it have been fatigue from the most innings in a season he’s thrown? Frustration from another near 100 losses? Displeasure over his contract situation? A combination of all three? I don’t have the answer. What I do have the answer to is Samardzija getting rocked a number of times. And it happening a number of times at home. That’s not an ace. That’s a third in the rotation type pitcher, at best. I am not sold on Japanese stud Masahiro Tanaka being an answer at the top of the rotation, either. Too many Japanese pitchers have flamed out because of arm issues. I understand his stuff is excellent, and he’s still young. That may make him a nice investment, but not for the $100+ million it’s going to cost. If the Cubs get him, I’ll hope for the best, but I won’t be at all surprised with the worst. As far as the back end of the rotation is concerned, bringing back Scott Baker, giving Chris Rusin a shot at a full season, and low cost free agents are all options.
5. Back-up catcher
I have a tough time with the idea of signing a Brian McCann (because of age and injury every bit as much as his high douche factor). All things being equal, I would hope the starting catcher market doesn’t treat Dioner Navarro as he would like, and he comes back. He had a nice year, seemed to have a good relationship with Wellington Castillo, and is a reliable backstop. Whoever comes in should take a back seat to Castillo, though. Big money free agent catchers shouldn’t (and probably won’t) be a priority. If the Cubs can land a guy like Jarrod Saltalamacchia for a decent price, great. if not, a LH hitting backup will work just fine.
One of the great parts about baseball is how this is going to play out throughout the off-season. The Cubs are not going to compete for a World Series next season, most likely. It could, though, bring the first wave of prospects to Wrigley Field. Javier Baez and Kris Bryant very well could debut with the big league club at some point next summer. In addition, could be up after being acquired in trades. It appears that the worst is behind the Cubs in the rebuild. Much of the “acquire talent at all costs” is over because of the amount of talent in the organization. The time now is for the build up. While the Cubs will continue to add pieces and make the team better and organization healthier, this off-season is the beginning of the build up of a contender. Whether it be adding placeholders for a prospect, adding leadership to help those prospects grow, or the eventual hiring of a new manager, the fruits of two years of painful big league play are beginning to ripen.
Look no further than what’s been going on in Arizona. Let the off-season begin!
I think we’re all sure that there is going to be a sell off at the deadline this season again. The extent of that sell off is yet to be determined, but in comparison to last year, it will likely be pretty minor. The reason for that is simple…there is less there for the Cubs to sell. That’s not to say this team is less talented than last year’s team. Actually, the opposite is true by a wide margin. Looking at “the plan,” though, and what the Cubs have on their roster, who is likely to go is pretty limited.
NOT GOING ANYWHERE:
Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood
The only player in this group who has any chance of being dealt is Travis Wood. Jeff Samardzija is a stud who is under team control through 2016. That type of pitcher is someone you don’t let go of if you’re lacking impact pitching talent in the first place. Travis Wood has an outside shot of being traded because of his hot start to the season, with nine quality starts in his first ten outings. He, too, is under team control for a long time. He won’t hit free agency until 2017. He is exactly the type of young, cost controlled asset the regime has said to want to keep around. Dealing him at the deadline would be a huge shock to me, and I don’t see it happening without some type of high end prospect coming back in return. And because Travis Wood is still only a good 4-5th starter, I can’t see a team willing to cough up that much for him. Edwin Jackson’s not going anywhere. He was signed to be a piece for when the Cubs compete. And he will get ample opportunity to figure out what troubles him.
MAY BE GOING SOMEWHERE:
He’s only been back for a week, so I think it is entirely too early to tell whether or not he is fully back from his arm/ lat injuries. And it is too early to tell what kind of value he has. I know that the Cubs are looking to get back impact prospects for Garza, and if they get the right package of them, he’ll be packing his bags and headed to another city. It is just too early to tell if any team is going to be willing to ship the Cubs the right package of prospects for a pure rental player, who is due to become a free agent at season’s end. It would figure to be just as likely that Garza stays in Chicago all season and the Cubs slap a qualifying offer on him. If that happens, it would be entirely possible that Garza would return to the Cubs after watching Kyle Lohse wait until just before the season to be signed. There is an outside shot that the Cubs extend him for a contract similar to the one they offered Anibal Sanchez. He is worth that kind of money when healthy, and if he shows that he is, he’d be worth the investment.
DON’T GET COMFORTABLE:
Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva
Both of these guys are attractive pieces at the deadline. Neither makes all that much money. Both can come out of the pen. Both can give you a good start every five days. That makes them the two best candidates to be out the door this July. Feldman was asked about being flipped at his introductory conference call, so none of this should come as news to him. Villanueva, however, signed a two year deal, so he would likely net a bit more than
Feldman in a trade, simply for the extra year of inexpensive control.
NOT GOING ANYWHERE:
Hector Rondon, Shawn Camp, Kyuji Fujikawa, Carlos Marmol
I know you’re all upset that Marmol is on this list. I am, too. He’s not worth a day old hotdog, though. At the deadline he’ll be due about $5M, and his numbers aren’t going to make that a good investment for a team looking for a quality reliever. The only way he comes off this list is if he has a turn around like last year and the Cubs eat most (…or all) of his remaining contract. And he won’t bring back very much in return. The most likely scenario with him is finishing the season and walking away in free agency. Shawn Camp is much more likely to be released than traded. Kyuji Fujikawa has been injured too early to have any chance at being dealt, and Hector Rondon is a Rule 5 player who the front office likes. That makes all of them mostly untradeable.
MAY BE GOING SOMEWHERE:
James Russell, Kevin Gregg
James Russell has proven to be a valuable commodity in the bullpen the last couple of years, which increases his value immensely, but since he is under team control through 2016, it stands to reason that the team would like to keep a controllable asset like him. There are good teams looking for left handed relievers who can get guys out on both sides of the plate, though. And if one of them offers up a good package for James Russell, it would not be outside of the realm of possibility that he gets shipped off for multiple pieces. Kevin Gregg is having a bit of a resurgence with the Cubs, which makes him attractive. He’s a cheap piece who could fit into a bullpen and occasionally close for a team looking for that type of player. He probably wouldn’t net a whole lot, but considering the Cubs were just throwing a line in the water to see what he had, any return would be a nice profit on their low risk investment.
NOT GOING ANYWHERE:
Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, Wellington Castillo
Rizzo and Castro both signed long term extensions. Those are obvious. Castillo is a talented young catcher who is going to get every opportunity to win this spot long term.
MAY BE GOING SOMEWHERE:
Darwin Barney, Luis Valbuena, Cody Ransom, Dioner Navarro
The most attractive piece in this group is obviously Darwin Barney. His glove makes him an attractive trade piece for someone looking for a really good utility infielder. Remember, he came up as a short stop and played some third base when he was initially called up. If his bat keeps coming along, he could be a really good long term starter at second base for a contending team with a shortage in that spot. He’s 27, so the Cubs may not see him as a long term piece of the core group of players. He is under team control until 2017, though. And if he continues to make progress with the bat, he is every bit the kind of player you want at 2B on a contending Cubs team. Luis Valbuena and Cody Ransom both offer the same kind of value for a team that Jeff Baker added last year. They are both utility players who can swing the bat some. They may not bring a lot in return, but that probably wouldn’t stop the front office from sending them away for some intriguing young players.
MAY BE GOING SOMEWHERE:
Alfonso Soriano, David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney
The safest bet for any of the outfielders to go anywhere is David DeJesus. A veteran, left handed hitter who can take pitches and work counts while offering solid defense at all three outfield positions is always in demand. If the price is right, DDJ is out the door. It’s just not clear what his value is. It can’t be too much higher than it was last year, and he wasn’t traded then. I sense that he would have been traded last year if there was a market for him, which gives me some reason to think he’s not the slam dunk to be traded that some are calling him. Soriano is going to be shopped aggressively, and if the Cubs find a team willing to package some good pieces together and Soriano is willing to waive his no trade rights, he likely goes at the deadline. There is too much uncertainty with Soriano, though. He’s picky. And he has that right. If the Cubs get a call about the other three players, I am sure they will listen, and if they can get a prospect of two that they like, there is almost no chance they refuse.
None of this is to say that the Cubs will stand pat at the deadline. It just isn’t clear who will or will not be going anywhere. There are not the sure things this season, like Ryan Dempster last season. There are attractive pieces on this team for others to look at, but none of them are necessarily special. Matt Garza would net the most in return, theoretically, but if Jed and Theo don’t get a package they like, it is hard to believe they will trade him for the sake of trading him. That actually applies to pretty much everybody on the roster short of Feldman. He is a true rental, even for the Cubs, so if they can squeeze a prospect out for him, they probably wouldn’t hesitate to do so. They may be a little more choosey with Villanueva only because they have him next season, too, and if they plan on being in the hunt next year, he’s a nice piece to have. Or, if we’re looking at another cold assessment that leads to selling, he has value then, too.
Expect some movement from the Cubs. Just don’t expect them to send away everything not nailed down like last year. This is year two. It’s time to start hanging on to some of the talent.
I’ll never cease to be amazed by the amount of discontent that occurs during a losing streak. And, at the same time, how quickly it disappears when the team wins four out of five.
As we were reminded this week, however, the roster is not complete, and will not be that way for quite some time.
- Matt Garza had a “setback,” in that his arm got tired. I wasn’t terribly concerned at the time because “dead arm” is something a lot of pitchers go through in Spring Training (which is pretty much where Garza is now). While it makes the news, and subsequently makes fans fall all over themselves about the guy being fragile and not worth the trouble, it’s really nothing. Until it has a reason to be something. Garza is now scheduled to pitch on May 1, so while his rehab from the lat strain may not have been as quick as we, as fans, would have liked, it does seem like the progress is good. When it comes to strains like that one, it is better to get it completely healed, and from everything we’ve been told, that seems to be the case. Now, it’s just a matter of getting him stretched out sufficiently to start at the major league level.
- Ian Stewart had a real setback the other night when he got hit on the elbow. He missed last night’s game, and is playing tonight. I get it. Most of you out there think Ian is a bum, and he’s not worth the peanuts the Cubs are paying him this season, you want Tyler Colvin back, etc. I’m going to continue to defend him, and the front office for bringing him back. At least until he’s had time to finish a cup of coffee with the major league team. His numbers aren’t good at Iowa, but he’s in the same boat as Garza. He’s getting his timing back and working through the Spring Training process. Unlike everyone in these games he’s playing, he’s still working the bugs out from not playing in about 11 months. Let’s see him healthy and for a while in the bigs before we write him off. We, as Cubs fans, should know that if he hits the streets before he gets all the way back, he’s going to go somewhere else, and be the third baseman we want him to be at Wrigley.
Neither of these players is going to be the savior to what is sure to be an uncompetitive season. They do, however, make the Cubs deeper (in spite of your feelings for Stewart). Getting Garza back will likely push Scott Feldman (because Travis Wood and Carlos Villanueva have earned the right to be in the rotation thus far) to the bullpen, as a long reliever. Since he’s been good for three or four inning stretches this season, maybe being the long man will add to his value. The same with Luis Valbuena. If Ian Stewart can come back and take hold of the third base job, the Cubs will have two versatile infielders who can play all over in Valbuena and Cody Ransom, who hit from each side of the plate. With Scott Hairston, Julio Borbon, and Dioner Navarro rounding out the bench, suddenly the Cubs don’t look quite so sad.
There are a lot of ifs in those statements. I’m sure not all of it will come true. Ian Stewart could come back, lay an egg, and be designated for assignment within a few weeks. We don’t know. But that is what the 2013 season is for. Finding out who’s got value and who’s not going to be with the team moving forward is what the plan was for this season.
In the mean time, just enjoy the winning streak.
Starting with the outfield in breaking down the season seems to be pretty easy. There are no spots up in the air at this point, as all three spots are filled. Actually, the only question in the outfield is who the fifth and final outfielder on the roster is going to be.
Right Field: Nate Schierholtz/ Scott Hairston
The most interesting spot in the outfield is the one with the platoon. Newcomers Nate Schierholtz and Scott Hairston offer a little bit more of what a corner outfielder should be in their ability to hit for power than David DeJesus did for much of last season, but neither of them is a long term solution to the side that has been most problematic since the departure of Sammy Sosa. They are mere placeholders for top prospect, Jorge Soler, who figures to be the long term solution to what has been a revolving door for eight seasons.
Nate Schierholtz was signed to a one year deal, and is finally getting the chance to be an everyday player (for the most part). As a former top prospect in the Giants’ system, he sports 24 career home runs, which is a season’s worth for a player you’d want starting in a corner outfield position. Nate’s defense has never been at issue. The biggest factor for him coming to Wrigley may be the most challenging RF corner in the game, where the summer sun can make routine fly balls a little more adventuresome than they should be.
Scott Hairston is another player who has not been the everyday player over the course of his nine years, but did show some pop in his bat, hitting 25 long balls last season. Brother of former Cub, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Scott has the bloodlines to be a good player, but hasn’t gotten the opportunity to be one on an everyday basis. Considering how long he’s been around, there is likely a reason for that. There is no reason to think he won’t be productive this year, but a 32 year old on a two year contract makes him a placeholder for Soler.
Center Field: David DeJesus
DeJesus is a little more suited to play center with the numbers he puts up and his defensive ability. His willingness to work counts and take a walk makes him a favorite of Dale Sveum and the front office, as his approach is the one the organization is working to install into all of its hitters. As a fan of the game, I admire what DDJ does for the team. He’s a veteran leader who will give the team four professional at-bats each day. As an objective (as much as possible) observer, I would prefer to see someone like DeJesus hitting seventh. The fact that this is the lead-off hitter speaks to how incomplete the rebuilding process is. David DeJesus could very well find himself on another roster at the deadline this year if Brett Jackson’s progress with his swing continues at the pace it seems to have been. He could end up being this season’s Bryan LaHair…displaced by one of the up and coming prospects, and my feeling is, if Jackson gets to Chicago this season (likely), he will be there to play, and he will be there to play everyday.
Left Field: Alfonso Soriano
If Fonsi can repeat what he did last season, he’s going to command a high price at the deadline. I do not see Soriano going anywhere. Either the coaching staff and front office mean what they say about him and his value to the team as a player and a leader for young players, and truly believe he is a valuable piece of the immediate process of building toward the future by teaching young players like Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler to be professionals and how to deal with being highly touted prospects, or their words are pricing any potential suitors for him out of the market. I think the team believes the former, but the latter is probably a bi-product of it. As such, I am pretty confident that Soriano is going to be the left fielder for the Chicago Cubs through the 2014 season. And I am confident that he will hit 20+ HRs and drive in 85+ runs each of the next two seasons. If he is able to play at the defensive level that he did last season, I don’t have any problem with it.
Reserves: Dave Sappelt
I am projecting Sappelt to win this last outfield spot. He can play all three positions and his bat is not a liability. He stands to be the front-runner to lock up the last spot in a crowded outfield.
Quantity and quality are not the same thing. The Cubs’ outfield is a prime example of that. Soriano is the best of them, and his numbers say he’s a solid player out there. David DeJesus is best suited as a fourth outfielder, given his versatility, defensive prowess, and his mediocre bat. Neither of the right fielders in the platoon sparks much confidence in big numbers, which is exactly why they are in a platoon to begin with. The outfield is very obviously waiting for the arrivals of Brett Jackson on a permanent basis, Jorge Soler, and Albert Almora. Until that time, there are going to be stop gap players and guys playing above their ability. The production should improve in the outfield this season from right field, which is to say there should be some. The defense should be strong. But don’t bother buying any of their jerseys…they won’t be around long.