Michael Bowden, Alex Burnett, Shawn Camp, Rafael Dolis, Kyuji Fujikawa, Kevin Gregg, Matt Guerrier, Kameron Loe, Carlos Marmol, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Brooks Raley, Henry Rodriguez, Hector Rondon, James Russell, Eduardo Sanchez, Pedro Strop, Hisanori Takahashi, and Carlos Villanueva.
That is the list of everybody who’s appeared in a game for the Cubs out of the bullpen thus far. And that pen has been much maligned. For a lot of reasons. The 24 blown saves advance that perception, even though many of those “saves” were blown in the 7th and 8th innings, and not the 9th. In all actuality, the 9th inning hasn’t gone all that bad for the Cubs. When the Cubs get to the 9th inning with a lead, they are 45-4. For comparison sake, they are 1-58 when they enter the 9th trailing. And overall, the bullpen has been much better of late. Since the additions of Strop, Guerrier, and Parker, the pen has been solid, and it has not regressed since Guerrier was lost. With Russell, Parker, and Strop, the Cubs finally have a bridge to Kevin Gregg in the 9th, who has gotten the job done in spite of how interesting it may be.
Looking forward, the Cubs figure to have James Russell, Blake Parker, Pedro Strop, and Carlos Villanueva back in the bullpen next season. Villanueva may be in the rotation for periods, but it seems like he is best suited to be in the pen, and fill in as a spot starter. That leaves three openings for next season’s bullpen. Matt Guerrier may be invited back after rehabbing from forearm surgery. The Cubs also have some players who can fit nicely into relief roles in the system already. Brian Schlitter has been dominant at AAA Iowa this season, racking up 17 saves without blowing one. And Arodys Vizcaino should be back from his elbow issues the last couple of years. The plan is, tentatively, to send him to play in fall and/ or winter leagues, to get him back on the mound, which would serve him well in rehabbing this off-season. And he may end up as a starter at some point, but a cautious approach with him, and letting him get innings in a bullpen role would be a way to bring him back at the major league level without running up 150-175 innings in his first year back. Filling the last slot with Hector Rondon, who has a good arm and a year of experience could make the Cubs pen much better, assuming everyone stays healthy and pitches similarly to how they are now.
Projected 2014 Opening Day Bullpen (assuming no outside moves are made):
While this exercise is highly speculative, the point is simple: the Cubs have the arms to improve the bullpen within the organization. And every one of the players in my projection has been in the major leagues, including Schlitter, who appeared in seven games all the way back in 2010. They have some depth, too. If the Cubs can figure out what is wrong with Henry Rodriguez and get him to throw strikes, he’s a viable option. Matt Guerrier has already expressed interest in returning on a minor league deal, and at this point, there is no harm in that. Eduardo Sanchez was a once promising reliever with the Cardinals, and is young enough to recapture his form. Kyuji Fujikawa will return at some point next season from Tommy John Surgery. And most importantly, maybe, Carlos Marmol, who couldn’t finish games at the end of his Cubs’ career, and Shawn Camp, who got beat up a lot this season will not be returning.
The pen is already better right now than it was for most of the summer. And there is talent in the organization to improve it further next season. With any offense at all, the Cubs might actually flirt with a winning season, which would be a positive step in the rebuilding effort.
A lot of pressure is put on a manager to effectively use his pitchers. Knowing when to pull a starter, knowing which reliever to go to, knowing how long a reliever can go, knowing when to give a reliever a day off, knowing when a reliever has had too many days off and needs to get some work…all of it matters when it comes to managing a pitching staff. For Dale Sveum, it’s amazing he knows who is sitting down there sometimes. For comparison sake, here is the difference between the bullpen when the season started and today:
Cubs 2013 Opening Day Bullpen:
- Carlos Marmol, Kyuji Fujikawa, James Russell, Shawn Camp, Hisanori Takahashi, Michael Bowden, Hector Rondon
Cubs Bullpen, May 29
- Kevin Gregg, Carlos Marmol, James Russell, Carlos Villanueva, Rafael Dolis, Hector Rondon, Alex Burnett
Every bullpen goes through changes through the course of the season. That’s not news. The amount of turnover in the Cubs’ pen, though, has been crazy. Shawn Camp is on the disabled list, Michael Bowden is still in DFA limbo after last week when Matt Garza came off the disabled list, Hisanori Takahashi was outrighted to Iowa, and Kyuji Fujikawa needs Tommy John surgery. Alex Burnett was claimed off of waivers and made his debut in a scoreless ninth today. Kevin Gregg was signed as organizational depth, or so we thought. He’s the freakin’ closer. KEVIN GREGG IS CLOSING AND BEING SET UP BY CARLOS MARMOL! It’s like 2009 all over again, and that’s not exactly what any of us wanted. In the mean time, Dolis has been up and down, and Kameron Loe was in town, got smacked around for a few weeks, and was released.
Some of the turnover is because of injuries. They happen disproportionately to pitchers, and we all knew a spot was going to be lost in the pen when Garza returned, but the ineffectiveness of the bullpen is another factor in the turnover. Blaming Dale for the ineffectiveness is unfair, too. He went to players who were reliable for him last season and they have failed him, time and time again. Both Carlos Marmol and Shawn Camp were supposed to be anchors at the back of the bullpen, and both have been removed from their roles. Camp only because of an injury he concealed for the better part of a month, according to Sveum. One of the more reliable relievers was Michael Bowden, who after being designated for assignment last Tuesday, must have action taken on him by Friday. He either needs to be waived, released, or traded. At this point, I can’t see why the Cubs wouldn’t try to sneak him through waivers and bring him right back. It won’t be difficult to find a 40 man slot for him, with Kyuji Fujikawa sacrificing his to the 60 day disabled list.
The numbers are gruesome. 10/20 in save conversions. Although, not all of those were in the 9th inning. Actually, a number of those were blown in the seventh and eighth innings, which underscores the importance of the ‘set up guy.” The Cubs have allowed 32% of inherited runners to score, which is just above the league average of 30%, according to baseball-reference.com. None of this information is a secret. It really only assigns numbers to what we’ve watched for the first two months of the season.
There is some hope, though. Carlos Villanueva has been good this season, and being a veteran reliever has been a strength of his. Kevin Gregg has been a stabilizing force since becoming the closer. James Russell continues to be the best reliever the Cubs have had since Sean Marshall went to Cincy. Carlos Marmol seems to be figuring it out and pitching much better when he doesn’t have the weight of closing the game on his shoulders. Like last season, the pen seems to be getting stronger now that there is a defined, effective guy at the end. Everything between the starter and closer then falls into place. If the starters keep pitching like they have been, and the pen extends its brief resurgence, a run of really good baseball isn’t out of the question.
The Cubs have placed Shawn Camp on the 15 Day DL with a strained toe (or bruises and lacerations from getting smacked around all season) and recalled Rafael Dolis from Iowa (or where ever he was hiding waiting to be called back to the big league team). What I can’t understand is why, if Camp was injured this weekend, because he reportedly got treatment on Sunday for this toe, did Michael Bowden have to leave and why was Camp the guy to get the call in a two run game with the bases loaded last night. Patrick Mooney just said that Dale plead ignorance to the injury, but it was something Camp dealt with in Toronto and has been bothering him for a month (A F’N MONTH!!!!!). If we’re keeping score, that is two relievers not coming clean with injuries and it costing the Cubs, because Kyuji Fujikawa did the same thing before he went on the DL.
Dale was also asked about the closed door meeting that lasted all of about three minutes. Gordon Wittenmyer just tweeted that the meeting was to “define roles” and that Carlos Villanueva is “too valuable to be considered a long man.” If that was indeed the only substance of the meeting, it would explain the brevity. It would also be met with a hearty, “DUH!” because Villanueva has been very good for the most part in the early going, and why wouldn’t you use him in a spot where the ball has been dropped repeatedly. I’m sure some other things were said, most not able to be typed on my PG blog.
We all knew someone was going to the bullpen to make room for the returning Matt Garza (Turns out that was Carlos Villanueva). The question not asked as often was, “who leaves the ‘pen?”
We found out today, in what is somewhat of a stunner, that the answer is apparently Michael Bowden. For my money, I was betting the answer was going to be Shawn Camp. After all, Camp and the 13 earned he’s given up in 16.0 innings of work, and the .378 OBP allowed don’t exactly bring back shades of the lightning he caught in a bottle last season. And when one of Camp’s balls gets put into play, it often times lands harmlessly. A .370 BABIP
against is not good by any measure (and that doesn’t count the three that have landed harmlessly in the bleachers).
Bowden hasn’t been a world beater by any means, but his numbers are better. He’s at a .308 OBP allowed, a .269 BABIP allowed, and more respectable 3.78 ERA in 16..2 innings. He hasn’t allowed a home run or committed any balks, both of which Camp has done. In comparison, Bowden’s ERA+ is 52 points higher than Camp (107-55). Save a rough outing in a 14th inning in Cincinnati, Bowden’s been nothing short of good. He went 1.2, and gave up the three runs to blow the game in his second inning of work. Otherwise, he’s not given up more than one run in any other appearance, and has shown the ability to be effective for more than one inning of work. Camp, on the other hand has given up multiple runs in an outing five times thus far, in 19 appearances.
From my perspective, whatever assessment was done to make this decision wasn’t as cold as the decision will be to sell off in July. It would almost appear that Dale Sveum’s undying devotion for the guy he called on in just short of half of the miserable 2012 season is getting extra credit for being good last year. Really, there’s no justification beyond that for keeping an older reliever who’s been less effective. By a lot. Actually, Michael Bowden has been the most consistent reliever not named James Russell that’s been in the pen all season. Marmol, Fujikawa, and Camp were all supposed to be more reliable and more depended on than Bowden, and none has been through the first quarter of the season.
At this point, we should hope that the Cubs are able to keep Bowden by passing through waivers and accepting an outright assignment to Iowa. I can’t be sure that happens, though. There are enough teams looking for young, inexpensive, effective relief pitching that I wouldn’t put the odds above 50/50 that Bowden makes it through waivers and accepts an outright to AAA.
The final player installment of the positional previews is the group who will see the most change throughout this season. In reality, that’s the case for just about every team, every season.
This season figures to be extra interesting for the Cubs in the bullpen. The addition of Kyuji Fujikawa from Japan as a potential (and likely) closer when Carlos Marmol departs the organization, either via trade or the expiration of his contract after the season lends some stability to the the back end, and the addition of Carlos Villanueva gives the Cubs the long reliever they’ve been without since Tom Gorzelanny packed his bags. Indeed, this will be the group with the most turnover of any on the team.
Closer: Carlos Marmol
For now. In spite of being only 30 and coming off of an impressive rebound in the second half of last season, Marmol is the most talked about trade piece this side of Alfonso Soriano. The fact that he did have a strong second half, is 30, and is in the last year of a deal with Cubs would be willing to pay almost all of make him a valuable piece for any contending team (*cough cough* Tigers) that needs a proven back end. I am of the opinion that Brian Wilson makes more sense for the Tigers than Marmol because he will be inexpensive and won’t cost prospects, but it seems as though Detroit is looking at all available options, including Marmol. That said, however long he’s around, he should be fine. Sure, he’s an adventure. He’ll put some on and he’ll make it interesting. But he slammed the door quite a bit last year. Another year of Chris Bosio would probably do him some good, but I don’t see Marmol being back under any circumstances next season if he finishes this season in Chicago. I see him becoming “controllable assets” before too long. This spot is definitely one that is not set…
Set-Up: Kyuji Fujikawa
This is the guy who will likely be the closer if/ when Marmol is sent out. The 32 year old “rookie” from Japan is coming over on a two year deal and was an excellent closer before coming over the states. The thing that worries me about “KJ” is that Japanese closers haven’t exactly been common…or good. In Japan, though, Fujikawa was uncommonly good. His ERA broke 2.00 only one time, a 2.01 ERA in 2010, and his 202 career saves lend him some credibility to finish games. He’s entering a new level of competition, and he very well could struggle like many of the Japanese pitchers before him. If he can be the exception to what has been the norm, however, everything should be fine for the short term.
Middle Relief: Shawn Camp, James Russell, Hector Rondon , Jaye Chapman, Michael Bowden (and a host of others throughout the season)
The two major pieces to this puzzle are Camp and Russell. Both of those guys were fixtures just about every day last season. And they were each pretty good. Russell appeared in 77 games with a strong 3.25 ERA. After being used in a variety of situations in 2011 and struggling before settling into the bullpen, 2012 was spent entirely in the bullpen, and Russell showed that he is an effective lefty, and can pitch effectively to both left and right handed hitters. He’s shown his value and as everyday asset much like Shawn Camp, who might be the oldest guy in the organization. At 37, Camp was another everyday fixture in the bullpen and led the league with 80 appearances. He was surprisingly effective in a set-up role with Russell, but struggled when he became the closer in Marmol’s absence. For a guy who signed a minor league deal during camp last season, Shawn Camp turned into one of the most valuable players on the roster. This season, he will probably not get the same use, and may improve the effectiveness of his aging arm. The last player of note is Rule 5 selection, Hector Rondon, who needs to be on the active roster for 90 days. The difference between Lendy Castillo from last season and Rondon is that Rondon has pitched at AAA, which is something Castillo had never done. Rondon has had arm issues, and if he’s past them, he could turn into a pleasant surprise, and may not spend months and months on the DL with Rule-5itis.
Long Relief: Carlos Villanueva
Even though, Villanueva will start the season in the rotation, this is going to be his role going forward. He’s well suited for it, too. Coming over from Toronto, he was looking for a chance to start, but it will probably not come
to fruition for him without some injury and trade subtractions from the rotation. And that’s alright. His numbers won’t blow anyone away, but he can make a start in a pinch and go 5-6 innings, or come in early in a game and save the bullpen from being spent. This is an often overlooked role and an unglamorous position for just about any pitcher to be in. He doesn’t get his name on the scroll on ESPN as the probable starter, nor does he get his name on it for the save. But this is a vital role because it allows the other players in the ‘pen to stay in their roles. As far as long relief pitching goes, there aren’t many who are better than Villanueva, even if he does look himself in the mirror and call himself a starting pitcher.
Other Names to Watch: Arodys Vizcaino, Trey McNutt, Robert Whitenack, Barret Loux, Hisanori Takahashi, Nick Struck
Vizcaino is probably the most well-known of these players, coming over from the Braves at the deadline last season. He could find his way into the bullpen to pick up some major league innings this season to get experience, especially if the Cubs fall out of it. McNutt seems to be throwing as well as he has in a few years, but now seems destined to have a bullpen role, and may make his way to Chicago this season. Loux is who ultimately came for Geovany Soto after Jacob Brigham was found to have had arm issues, and is in camp as a non-roster player. He seems to be a better prospect than Brigham, and is closer to the majors, so it seems like the Cubs won in the end on that deal. Takahashi and Struck are both in camp as non-roster players, as well, and could wind up in the bullpen at some point this season as well. As I mentioned at the outset, this is where there is the most flux during a season. This season should be no different.
As expected, Michael Bowden has cleared waivers and has been out-righted to AAA Iowa.
The Cubs also signed 2010 All-Star reliever Hong-Chih Kuo to a minor league contract today, and he will report to Mesa. Kuo signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in February and was released in March.
Two things right off the bat: First, I am going to throw an extra proof read into this post to ensure that it is coherent when I finish because I am toughing out a trip to the DL with a nasty cold, so please bear with me if there is an error in here. Hell, we’re Cubs’ fans for the most part, we should be used to errors. Second, my site views have gone up dramatically in recent weeks, especially as my posts have become more and more regular. Thank you all for taking the time to read my thoughts, because when I started I was really writing for my own enjoyment, and now I see that I have another reason. For that, I thank you all for taking the time on my thoughts. Whether you come from Facebook, Twitter, or find my blog via search engine, it’s nice to see more people are reading this nonsense. Now, on to relevant discussion…
The last couple of days have been filled with some serious discussions about who is available. We all know that it is basically everyone. It was nice to see Theo Epstein say that Starlin Castro was not available for less than a king’s ransom. He’s 22. Twenty Two! ONE YEAR OLDER THAN THE LEGAL DRINKING AGE! Moving him for less than two of the top ten prospects in the game would be a horrendous mistake. His career trajectory is nearly straight up, as he grows into a more mature player. Thinking he has plateaued is in the realm of irretrievably stupid. There. Done on Castro.
Matt Garza is another situation. He is in his prime. He does have a lot of value. He is very good. He is the kind of guy the front office should make every effort to keep, but… Here’s the thing. There are teams that are going to contend that need pitching. They’ll probably be willing to over pay for a guy that has succeeded in their division. Let’s say…the Yankees, since that was the report today. From my perspective, any Garza trade to the Yankees would have to include two out of three of the following: LHP Manny Banuelos, OF Mason Williams, and RHP Bryan Mitchell. That would make for two of the top 20 prospects in the Yankees system for Matt Garza. That would be a satisfactory price tag on Garza, and the Yankees have shown a willingness to part with top prospects to win now.
A Garza trade to the Red Sox would be a little less easy to envision, but it might be easier to work out with the familiarity that Theo has with his former farm system. Let’s remove someone from the discussion before we start. We’re not getting Will Middlebrooks. AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN! Since that’s cleared up, let’s start with who could be had. Matt Barnes would be a solid acquisition, as the 2011 1st round pick from UCONN. He’s big and throws hard. Pair him with SS Jose Vinicio, and that would be an acceptable package from the BoSox in return for Garza. Like the Yankees, that is two of the top 20 prospects in the system. Anything less, from any team in the conversation for Garza, and I would walk away from the trade.
The players that would come back in a Ryan Dempster trade are going to be a lot more modest. It is impossible to be specific about prospects for Dempster because he could go just about anywhere, and he won’t bring back much more than a middle of the road prospect or two that only have a shot at the majors, meaning no “can’t miss” players coming our way for Dempster. His age, his impending free agency, and his 10-5 rights are going to make it tough to deal him for much. He can bring some value, however. And I would be stunned if he were still a Cub on August 1.
The Cubs did make a bullpen move today, designating RHP Michael Bowden for assignment. Bowden was acquired for Marlon Byrd, and had a 7.45 ERA in his 10 appearances with the Cubs this season. He could find himself in Iowa if he goes unclaimed on waivers. Actually, I would guess that is exactly what is going to happen to him. To take his place, the Cubs claimed Jairo Asencio off waivers from the Indians. He is 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA in 27 appearances with the Braves and Indians. There isn’t much to say about Asencio, other than he had decent minor league numbers, seemed to struggle a bit at the major league level, and is a flyer for a team looking for bullpen help.