Through the beginning of their tenure, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have done nothing short of a masterful job of adding quality talent to the Cubs’ minor league system. Between the inherited talent and the added talent, the Cubs now have what is a consensus top ten system in the game, and it is likely to get better with the addition of second overall pick Kris Bryant, international signings, and the trade deadline.
Not all of the positions in the organization are overflowing with talent, however. With the international signing and the trade deadline looming, there are some clear areas of need. To build the caliber of organization that the team needs to have and the front office wants to grow, weaknesses need to be addressed.
The focus needs to be on positions with glaring deficiencies. There are positions that are strong at the lower levels of the minor leagues without much talent at the top end, while some are stronger throughout the system or aren’t strong at all. The focus needs to be on picking up pieces to build a strong pipeline to the majors sooner than 2015-2016 and strengthen areas without much talent to speak of at all.
This is a no-brainer. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have acknowledged that the Cubs will use the international pool and trade deadline to strengthen this piece of the puzzle. There are some nice pieces at just about every level of the organization, but not nearly enough. The best prospect in the organization is Arodys Vizcaino, who was acquired last July in the Paul Maholm trade. When he gets healthy, he has front of the rotation stuff, but his arm trouble might limit him to a relief role. Pierce Johnson just got his long overdue promotion to Daytona, and he appears to be on his way. Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood are nice young pieces at the ML level. The focus has been on arms in the draft, but none of them appear to be impact arms, with the Cubs grabbing position players with their last two top ten picks. The clear lack of high end, projectable pitching talent makes it job one for the Cubs this July. They could start out by signing Cuban prospect Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. He’s 26, and could realistically start in the upper levels of the minor leagues this season, if not at the major league level…and all he costs is money. Which the Cubs don’t seem opposed to spending on international free agents.
Beyond Wellington Castillo and Steve Clevenger, there isn’t a lot of strength to one of the keystone positions. While Castillo is a young player who is looking more and more like an everyday backstop, organizational depth is paramount at a position where injuries mount and nobody can catch everyday. Dioner Navarro is a stop gap at the major league level. While the Cubs can be active in signing veteran catchers for a year or two at a time, there is a ton of value in bringing catchers through the system who have a history with the pitchers coming up through the system.
3. Corner Infielders
Count me among the guys who really likes Christian Villanueva. And Jeimer Candelario. And Anthony Rizzo. Beyond that, there are a ton of question marks. Josh Vitters may never figure it out defensively. I am not sold on the idea that Kris Bryant can stick at third base. Dan Vogelbach appears to best project as a designated hitter. Junior Lake is looking more and more like a super utility player. Luis Valbuena is a utility player who is having a nice season as a starter for a rebuilding team, but in no way should or would be a starter on a playoff caliber team. It really boils down to defense with this group. While first base at the major league level appears to be filled for the foreseeable future, third base is a bit of a black hole and there is almost no depth in the system at first. One thing that helps this group along is the potential for Javier Baez or Starlin Castro to slide over to third and fill the slot whenever Baez makes his way up to the majors.
4. Center Field
The cupboard at the major league level is bare. David DeJesus, Dave Sappelt, and Ryan Sweeney are really nice filler material during the rebuild, but they are similar to Luis Valbuena. All three are reserves on playoff teams, and none of them figure to be around for the long haul. Albert Almora looks fantastic at Kane County thus far. He’s a few years away from being an option, though. It is up in the air if Brett Jackson makes use of his incredible talent because he is endlessly afflicted by the strike out. Jae-Hoon Ha and Matt Szczur both look like the DeJesus/ Sweeney type, as in they could be spare outfielders who can play all over as defensive replacements. For those reasons, it wouldn’t hurt to add a center fielder with upside if the opportunity presents itself.
5. Corner Outfielders
There isn’t much for depth here in Iowa, but there is a lot to like about the potential for corner outfielders in the Cubs organization. Jorge Soler is obviously the crown jewel of these guys at any level, but he won’t be in Chicago until September of 2014 at the absolute earliest. The better bet is 2015 at some point. Kris Bryant, to me, is probably going to end up in the corner not occupied by Soler, should everything go right. This is a group that could also include Junior Lake, Josh Vitters if his defense stays as shaky at third as it has been. Reggie Golden is at Kane County and is a sleeper to me. Overall, I like the group of players the Cubs have stocked up on that could be turned into corner outfielder, where hitting is most important, and where defensive liabilities like Vitters can be hidden. Again, it wouldn’t hurt to add to it if the opportunity arises, but there are definitely better places to add pieces.
6. Middle Infield
Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, Logan Watkins, Arismendy Alcantara, Ronald Torreyes, Javier Baez…need I say more? There is a legit prospect at just about every level of the minor leagues in the middle infield. And the major league level has a two time All-Star and a Gold Glove winner in the line-up everyday, neither of whom is old by any stretch of the imagination. The middle infield is the strength of the organization, and unless you’re getting Jurickson Profar in a deal, this area isn’t a priority in the least.
There is no argument to be made that the Cubs wouldn’t be best served to get the best players they can, regardless of the positions they play. Weaknesses cannot be ignored, however, and the goal when moving players like Matt Garza should be to find high level talent in areas of need, which would make the trade good for both sides. Again, if the Rangers are parting with Profar (for example), you have to pull the trigger. Talent like that doesn’t come around very often. At the end of the day though, the focus has to be on adding impact arms that can make a difference in the near future and catchers to work with them coming up through system.
The Epstein Administration is off to a very honest start, to say the least. When Theo came, he made no mistake that the intention was to build an organization, from the bottom up, in order to sustain success for the long term. To this point, he has kept his word. The Cubs’ system now features five of the top 100 prospects, according to MLB.com’s updated, post season rankings. Half of the organization’s top ten prospects have been acquired since Epstein and Co. have arrived, and that does not include First Baseman Anthony Rizzo, who would be the undisputed #1 prospect in the system if he met MLB.com’s criteria for what makes a prospect. The fact that he has had a rookie season in the majors, from my view, does not make him any less of a prospect. He is by no means a finished product…which is a scary good thought after his 2012 season.
With all of that, here is a positional look at the system:
- PITCHING: Pitching is still the weakness of the system. Theo knows it. Jed knows it. Even the guy in the bleachers drunkenly screaming to fire Dale Sveum because we could have won the World Series this year knows it. That is why the focus has been on acquiring pitching. The new regime spent almost the entire draft on infusing the system with new arms. They made an unsuccessful attempt to acquire Randall Delgado for Ryan Dempster. They made a successful deal with the Braves to acquire Arodys Vizcaino, who is the best pitching prospect in the system, according to MLB’s new rankings. Pierce Johnson and Paul Blackburn are also top 20 prospects in the system, who were drafted in the slots gained from the departures of Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena. Nine of the top 20 are pitchers, none of whom is Hayden Simpson, the 2010 first round pick. We are very close to reaching bust status with him. The front office knows that there is still a shortage of arms in the system, so look for a continued focus on acquiring them, either through trades or in the draft. Alfonso Soriano and Matt Garza could each become prospect pitching, if there is a deal to be made.
- CATCHERS: With Wellington Castillo looking primed to crouch behind the dish on a full time basis, with Steve Clevenger being a capable back up, and Geovany Soto being a Texas Ranger, it would seem the system is lacking in catching depth. That’s mostly true. The only catcher of note who will be in the minor leagues next season is Anthony Recker, who finished the season in the majors because of a September call-up. The bright side to the catching situation is that both of the big league backstops are young players, who, like Anthony Rizzo, I would still consider prospects, who are developing at the big league level. That’s some good news. The bad news is, catchers tend to be injured more than other positions, and there is not a lot behind them.
- INFIELD: There is some talent in the infield in the organization, but it’s nothing to jump out of your chair for. Javier Baez is a notable exception to that, as the system’s number one prospect, again, according to MLB.com. Christian Villanueva and Junior Lake are also both in the top ten in the organization, but neither seem to be all that close to cracking the major league line-up anytime soon. Lake is probably the closest prospect, but he projects to be a utility player, who can play all over because of his arm and athleticism. He has good power, but lacks plate discipline and still needs some polish in the field. He could be a call-up in the mold of Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson in 2013, to get some experience at the major league level before going back to the minors to work on deficiencies he may not get to know without a call-up. As for Baez and Villanueva, both finished the season at Daytona. They may go to AA, Tennessee together next season, but a more sure bet is that they open at Daytona next year. Josh Vitters, the most major league ready prospect in the infield, showed that he still needs some time to grow. I could see him being moved to a corner outfield spot if his glove does not improve significantly. An interesting prospect on the infield is Dan Vogelbach, whose bat will probably propel him up the system. He hit for a combined 1.051 OPS between Mesa and Boise. Being a 1B, though, is going to hurt him with the Cubs. He is blocked by Anthony Rizzo. If he could become a 3B, he could be a Pablo Sandoval type player in the future, although Keith Law says he has “no shot.” My guess is, his lack of athleticism is going to be a significant issue with him being anything more than a first baseman or a designated hitter…which the Cubs have no use for.
- OUTFIELD: The outfield is where the most depth is within the system. After getting a sight of Brett Jackson, it appears that he has the ability to man CF at Wrigley for a long time, with improvements to his swing and approach at the plate. The additions of Albert Almora and Jorge Soler, both of whom played well in their first taste of American pro baseball, make them, with Jackson, three of the top five prospects in the system. With other interesting prospects, like Dave Sappelt and Shawon Dunston Jr, there is some serious talent, much of which is still saturating the low levels of the system. For the time being, it is interesting to wonder about what an Almora, Jackson, Soler outfield will look like…because it won’t be a reality for a few years. For now, we’ll get to watch a Soriano, DeJesus, LaHair (or whoever else they can manage to throw out there).
There is a lot more talent in the minors now than there was 12 months ago. That is something that has to be attributed to building the organization, as opposed to trading any and all talent we can to get veteran players to win right now. There has been a lot of that over the years, leaving the cupboards pretty bare. Building it back up will take as much time and effort as it will to build the big league team into one that can consistently win. It is a good thing to have talent saturation in the minors, and at this point in time, there is much more of it than there was when Jim Hendry left the club. It is exciting, however, to watch the build-up. Seeing lower level clubs compete, like the Boise Hawks did in 2012 is a sign of talent infusion. Hopefully, the Cubs are able to build a system that can compete at all levels. No organization can have too much talent. At this point,though, it is still a work in progress.
Some news and notes of the day…
- Anthony Rizzo is expected to debut with the major league Cubs tomorrow, which is the start of the future. Without the pressure of guiding a winning team, or even a team with a modestly poor record, Rizzo is going to be the everyday first baseman against lefties and right-handers, according to Dale Sveum. With 89 games remaining after tonight, if Rizzo can hit between 10 and 15 HRs and drive in between 40 and 50, it would be a successful transition for a player that is meant to be a foundation piece for future seasons. This also could signal the beginning of a number of call-ups from Iowa and Tennessee, as more and more players are likely to get looks at the big league level as veterans like Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Alfonso Soriano, Reed Johnson, Jeff Baker, Geovany Soto, and others are subject to trade speculation.
- Marlon Byrd’s positive test for tamoxifen is a bitter pill to swallow for me, personally, because of the respect I have for him While tamoxifen is not a performance enhancing drug, it is banned because it is used to mitigate the side effects of PEDs. For his part, Byrd says that he was prescribed the drug for a condition not related to baseball. Tamoxifen is used to treat a variety of conditions, and without testing positive for steroids or testosterone, it is unlikely that Marlon had any performance enhancing effect from it. Unfortunately, its off label use as a mask for PED use puts it on the banned substance list, and triggered his positive test. As has been my feeling since he was traded, I hope Byrd catches on somewhere and can have a positive impact on a contending team.
- Many in the 2012 draft class are getting their careers underway, either with the Boise Hawks or in the AZL. Supplementary Picks Pierce Johnson and Paul Blackburn, the highest of the picks to sign to this point, are in Arizona. First round (6th overall) pick, Albert Almora is yet to sign.
- As the trade deadline gets closer, Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza are being talked about more and more. That talk will not quiet down until a move is made or the deadline passes. Garza is the biggest chip in the Cubs’ pile, which would net them the most in return. It appears, however, at the moment, Dempster is still the only player likely to be traded. Ryan is still on the Disabled List, though, and he will probably make at least a few starts with the Cubs to prove that he is alright before a team ponies up prospects for him.
The Cubs have announced the signing of 15 of their 2012 Draft Picks, which does not include 6th overall pick Albert Almora. The list does include:
RHP Paul Blackburn
OF Rashard Crawford
RHP Corbin Hoffner
C Chad Krist
C Carlos Escobar
LHP Michael Heesch
RHP Joshua Conway
SS Stephen Bruno
LHP Nathan Dorris
RHP Steve Perakslis
3B Jacob Rogers
C Lance Rymel
OF Izaac Gorsez
SS Timothy Saunders
3B Benjamin Carhart
First Round Compensation pick Pierce Johnson has tweeted that he has agreed to a contract, but his deal is not official, yet. I assume he has not taken a physical.
June 20 Update: The team has announced Johnson’s signing, which makes the signing official. Physicals and other loose ends have been tied, and he is in the fold. Cubs.com blogger Carrie Muskat reported that the bonus is the maximum for the slot he was selected, $1.196M, as a compensation selection for the loss of 3B Aramis Ramirez.
June 11: 21 year old first round supplemental pick, RHP Pierce Johnson has signed with the Cubs, Johnson confirmed on Twitter this evening.
“Just signed with the Chicago Cubs! Thanks to God, family, teammates, coaches, and friends. If it wasn’t for you guys I wouldn’t be here!” – Johnson’s Twitter Page, @Flowbro34, said tonight
Pierce is the highest of the draft picks to sign thus far.
After selecting OF Albert Almora with their first (6th Overall) pick, the Cubs have gone with all pitchers with their picks since. The list of selections is as follows:
I’ll try to keep this list as updated as possible as the Cubs make their selections, but I will have to fill in the rest of the days picks after I return from tonight’s game @ Milwaukee.
1. #6 Overall, Albert Almora, OF, Mater Academy Charter School, FL
1. (Comp A) #43 Overall, Pierce Johnson, RHP, Missouri State
1. (Comp A) #56 Overall, Paul Blackburn, RHP, Heritage HS, CA
2. #67 Overall, Duane Underwood, RHP, Pope HS, GA
3. #101 Overall, Ryan McNeil, RHP, Nipomo HS, CA
4. #134 Overall, Josh Conway, RHP, Coastal Carolina
5. #164 Overall, Anthony Prieto, LHP, Americas HS, TX
6, #194 Overall, Trey Lang, RHP, Gateway Community College, AZ
7. # 224 Overall, Stephan Bruno, 3B, University of Virginia
8. #254 Overall, Michael Heesch, LHP, University of South Carolina Beaufort
9. #284 Overall, Chadd Krist, C, University of California
10. #314 Overall, Chad Martin, RHP, University of Indiana
11. #344 Overall, Rashad Crawford, CF, Mundy’s Hill HS, GA
12. #374 Overall, Justin Amlung, RHP, Louisville
13. #404 Overall, Bijan Rademacher, OF, Orange Coastal College, CA
14.#434 Overall, Corbin Hoffner, RHP, St. Petersburg College, FL
15. #464 Overall, Carlos Escobar, C, University of Nevada